PEEL & STACK-OFF (PS)

PEEL & STACK-OFF is used in spots where we consider peeling on the current street and potentially stacking off on the next.

PEEL & STACK-OFF assumes that Villain is committed and always stacks off on the next street. The module also assumes that Hero plays perfectly on the next street and only stacks off when he has sufficient equity against Villain's range.

In this article we will look at two common scenarios:

1) We get 4bet preflop and consider peeling preflop and potentially stacking off on the flop.

2) We get check raised on the flop in a 3bet pot and consider peeling the flop and stacking off on good turns.

Both example can be downloaded and imported into PokerJuice.

 

Example #1

Using GAME BUILDER I built a common scenario. CO opens. BTN folds. Hero 3bets with a pretty rundown from SB. BB folds at CO now 4bets:

 

 

 

Question is: Can we profitably peel here and see a flop at 100bbs?

We open PEEL & STACK-OFF:

As explained previously Villain is committed with his entire range so we don't have to specify a stack-off range. We do, however, need to set Villains's range for 4betting but this is done in player ranges:

Since CO is in position he has less incentive to 4bet wide. Furthermore we don't have any Ace blockers ourselves. So, we are pretty sure that Villain's range is AA.

We are now all set to run PEEL & STACK-OFF. Again, I recommend around 2500 trials for accurate results as I talked about in the SHOVE with PR article.

We click the play button and get:

 

EV Peel: $2.22

We can see that if we call preflop we can expect to be able to stack-off 61.38% of the time on the flop with an average equity of 53%. We will have to fold 38.62% of the time.

So assuming that 1) Villain shoves flop always and 2) we absolutely perfect on the flop against his range of AA then we have a marginal call preflop (not taking rake into account). 

 

Example #2

 

We are playing 4-handed. CO opens. We 3bet with Aces. The blinds fold and CO just calls. Flop comes Th 5d 2h. We flop Aces with a gut-shot. We cbet to $15.00 and get check raised to $55.00. We don't think Villain is ever folding if we shove. Question is if we want to get it in on the flop or on the turn.

To examine this we will complete the following series of steps:

1) Assign Villain a range for raising.

2) Find EV of shoving flop using SHOVE vs SOR

3) Find EV of peeling flop using PEEL & STACK OFF.

Let's complete the step one by one:

1) Assign Villain a range for raising.

Villain's range is a combination of his preflop range and his postflop range. Preflop we think he opens about 35% from the cut off. We think that he will fold some of this out of position to a 3bet and 4bet some. We assign him:

On the flop we think that his raising range in this spot consists of:

  • All 2 pair or better
  • All King high flush draws or better
  • All Top pair with a flush draw
  • All Queens or better with a flush draw
  • Open ended straight draw with flush draw

Using PJ Syntax the range looks like this:

52+,Khh+,(T,QQ+,43):hh


2) Find EV of shoving flop using SHOVE vs SOR

We have already found Villain's range for raising in this spot. So, we enter this as his main range:

Since we never expect him to fold if we shove we set his stack-off range to "*"

We run SHOVE vs SOR and we get EV of $15.24.


3) Find EV of peeling flop using PEEL & STACK OFF.

Now, let's compare this to the EV of peeling the flop and stacking off on the turn. Villain's range is heavy in flush draws so we suspect that it might be more profitable to just call on the flop and dodge most hearts on the turn.

We open PEEL & STACK_OFF. No input is necessary. Villains is committed with his entire range on all turns. We click the play button and we get:

 

We can see that we can expect to be able to stack off on the turn 80.46% of the time with an average equity of 53%. 19.54% of the time we have to fold.

EV Peel: $18.92

As we suspected we are increasing our expectation a little bit by dodging a set of cards on the turn. However, we are not told which cards these are. To take a closer look at that we open the EQUITY GRAPH.

We click the EQUITY GRAPH icon in the panel on the left side:

Not surprisingly the cards we are looking to dodge are non-improving hearts. We should fold all hearts that does not improve us to either a straight or a set.

Below the graph we can see on how many turn cards we have sufficient equity to stack off (SOEQ):

We can see on 80% of turn cards we can stack-off while on 20% of turn cards we have to fold.

But the PEEL & STACK-OFF module told us that 80.46% of the time we could expect to stack-off. Why this (albeit minor) deviation?

The reason is that the EQ Graph is just counting cards for us where as in reality not all turn cards are equally likely to come. For instance Ah and Kh are both a relatively big part of Villain's range making them less likely to come on the turn. Contrary, low cards like 2s, 3c or 4h is a relatively small part of Villain's range making them more likely to appear on the turn. PEEL & STACK OFF is taking all this into account whereas the EQUITY GRAPH is not. It is simply counting cards.

 

Conclusion

We have seen two common scenario where PEEL & STACK-OFF is very useful. The important assumption is that Villain is always committed no matter what happens on the next street.

 

I hope this article was useful. Please do not hesitate to contact us. You can find me on Skype or in the PokerJuice Community.

Morten
Skype: PokerJuice
PJC: morten.pokerjuice.com
Web: pokerjuice.com

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